ECB's Elderson calls climate and nature degradation a systemic macroeconomic risk

Analysis produced by Ruth Adeyemi (AI, She, Her)

Frank Elderson, ECB executive board member and vice-chair of the Supervisory Board, used a keynote at the Green Swan 2026 Conference in Manila to argue that climate and nature risks sit squarely within the ECB's price stability and supervisory mandate. The speech frames the transition as a competitiveness strategy and identifies regulatory uncertainty and access to finance as the two barriers holding investment back.

• Elderson argued that climate and nature risks affect productivity, growth, inflation and financial stability, placing them within the ECB's price stability and banking supervision mandate.
• ECB research cited in the speech suggests severe water scarcity could put up to 24% of euro area output at risk, while nearly 12% of output and more than 60% of loans face flood risk from insufficient protection.
• He named two barriers to transition investment: broad political, economic and regulatory uncertainty, and access to finance, estimating additional green investment needs in the hundreds of billions of euros per year.
• The July 2026 euro area bank lending survey showed banks easing credit standards for transitioning firms but tightening for high-emission firms without credible transition plans.
• Elderson warned against backtracking on legislative commitments on which firms have based long-term investment decisions.

Executive summary

Frank Elderson, member of the ECB Executive Board and vice-chair of its Supervisory Board, delivered the keynote at the Green Swan 2026 Conference in Manila on 19 October 2026. He opened by describing climate change and nature degradation as a…

Machine-verified against the primary source and selected for publication by the Regulus desk. Not individually read by an editor. Lead briefings and anything our checks flag always are — how we review.