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Cards Wire 22 segments
0:15
BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 14 claims 27 Oct 2026

BIS flags fast-growing AI infrastructure debt and its spillover risk to bond markets

The BIS has published a short bulletin on how the buildout of AI infrastructure is being financed and what it could mean for wider credit markets. It describes the structures moving this debt, the double role banks play, and why spillovers to US Treasury and investment-grade markets have stayed contained for now. Compliance and risk readers at lending and investing institutions should know what the BIS is watching.

  • AI infrastructure capex is growing fast, with a rising share financed through long-term debt and complex off-balance sheet arrangements.
  • Off-balance sheet commitments from a few large firms help transform the credit rating of the debt and draw in institutional capital.
  • Banks often lend both to the financing vehicles and to the investors holding the debt, creating a double exposure.
  • Spillovers to US Treasury and investment-grade bond markets on AI-financing news days in 2026 were small and short-lived.
  • The authors warn that sustained issuance at the current pace could change the spillover picture.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Prudential & Capital ✓ 12 claims 27 Oct 2026

Basel Committee says most members will apply Basel III by April 2027

The Basel Committee's latest progress update tracks how its 27 member jurisdictions are implementing the post-2017 Basel III reforms, originally due to take effect in 2023. This briefing covers the published status as of end-September 2026 and the compliance deadline most members have now set.

  • Three quarters of the Basel Committee's 27 member jurisdictions have published rules adopting the full Basel III standards as of 30 September 2026.
  • The revised credit risk and operational risk standards, along with the output floor, are already effective in around 85% of member jurisdictions.
  • Almost all member jurisdictions have publicly announced that banks must apply Basel III by April 2027 or earlier.
  • The standards cover the final Basel III elements published in December 2017 and the finalised minimum capital requirements for market risk from January 2019, with an original implementation date of 1 January 2023 set by the GHOS in March 2020.
  • The GHOS met on 9 March 2026, welcomed implementation progress and reaffirmed its expectation of full and consistent implementation, tasking the Committee with continued monitoring.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Digital Assets ✓ 11 claims 27 Oct 2026

BIS chief outlines four research priorities under new BIS 100 strategy

A Central Banking interview with BIS general manager Pablo Hernández de Cos sets out the rationale behind the institution's new BIS 100 strategy and the research priorities it implies. For compliance and policy teams tracking where international standard-setting attention is heading, the interview signals which themes the BIS will prioritise toward 2030.

  • The BIS 100 strategy, launched under Hernández de Cos, is designed to conclude in 2030, the BIS's centenary year.
  • The monetary and economic department has identified four research areas: technology and future of money, non-bank finance, structural change, and financial regulation.
  • Technology research will cover tokenisation ranging from stablecoins to tokenised deposits.
  • The non-bank finance workstream will examine intermediaries' growing role in intermediating public debt and their interconnections with traditional banks.
  • The regulation workstream aims to assess the effectiveness and potential side effects of different regulatory measures to inform debate on modernising regulation.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 20 claims 26 Oct 2026

BIS research finds loose financial conditions amplify gold's safe-haven rally

This BIS working paper examines why gold has rallied even as the usual link between geopolitical risk and tighter financial conditions has weakened since 2024. For compliance and treasury functions tracking safe-haven flows, the paper offers a data-driven explanation rooted in investors' capacity to rebalance rather than simple risk aversion.

  • BIS Working Paper 1380, authored by Rafael Guerra and Gabriel Zelpo, was published 6 October 2026.
  • The study uses monthly data spanning 1990 to 2026 to measure gold's response to geopolitical shocks under varying financial conditions.
  • Geopolitical risk historically correlates with tighter financial conditions, but the paper finds this relationship weakened between 2024 and 2026.
  • The research finds stronger support for a credit and liquidity risk channel than for an opportunity cost channel in explaining gold's safe-haven response.
  • The largest impact on gold returns occurs when loose financial conditions coincide with geopolitical escalation, as observed during 2024-26.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Prudential & Capital ✓ 13 claims 23 Oct 2026

BIS working paper links oil discoveries to inflation under fixed exchange rates

This BIS Working Paper (No. 1389) examines whether news of future income, specifically large oil and gas discoveries, moves current inflation before any extraction begins. It matters to macro policy teams because it identifies exchange rate flexibility as the variable that determines whether such news shocks become domestic inflation.

  • The dataset covers 1,309 large oil and gas discoveries across 79 economies from 1980 to 2019.
  • The study restricts its sample to discoveries with realised production lags of at least five years to isolate anticipation effects.
  • About half of the total increase in core consumer prices occurs before extraction begins.
  • Inflation rises mainly under inflexible exchange rate regimes but is largely absent under flexible regimes.
  • The current account initially worsens as domestic demand increases, then turns to surplus once new oil production begins.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Prudential & Capital ✓ 10 claims 23 Oct 2026

CPMI and IOSCO finalise guidance on FMI general business risk and losses

CPMI and IOSCO have published final guidance supplementing the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures, addressing how FMIs should identify and fund against general business losses. The report follows a 2025 consultation and a Level 3 assessment that found gaps in how FMIs apply Principle 15. Relevant for FMI boards, risk officers and resolution authorities overseeing recovery and wind-down planning.

  • CPMI and IOSCO published a final report on FMIs' management of general business risks and general business losses on 14 October 2026.
  • The report provides supplemental guidance to the CPMI-IOSCO Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures covering identification, monitoring and governance of general business risk.
  • It sets guidance on determining the minimum amount of liquid net assets funded by equity that FMIs should hold against potential general business losses.
  • The final report builds on a consultative report on general business losses published in November 2025.
  • It incorporates findings from a Level 3 assessment report on implementation of PFMI Principle 15, which identified issues in FMIs' management of general business risk and their liquid net assets funded by equity.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Conduct & Consumer ✓ 14 claims 23 Oct 2026

BIS official urges central banks to treat household financial health as core mandate

A speech by Fernando Restoy, chair of the BIS Financial Stability Institute, delivered at the G-24/AFI Policymakers' Roundtable in Bangkok, sets out why household financial health should inform how central banks pursue existing financial stability and monetary policy mandates, including through cryptoasset-related risks and new indicators.

  • Restoy explicitly states he is not suggesting financial health should become a new central bank objective.
  • The G20 working definition cited identifies four dimensions of financial health: managing day-to-day obligations, coping with shocks, pursuing future goals, and feeling financially secure.
  • Restoy cites a recent FSI paper (Frost et al 2026) finding that expanded financial inclusion has not automatically translated into better financial health across countries.
  • He identifies two required actions: better measurement of household financial health, and research into whether financial health indicators can complement existing financial stability and monetary policy frameworks.
  • On cryptoassets, he notes volatility, fraud prevalence, absence of deposit-insurance-like protections, and lower financial literacy in markets with the fastest-growing crypto use as risks to financial health.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 17 claims 22 Oct 2026

BIS study finds offshore NDF trades move onshore exchange rates within minutes

BIS working paper 1383 examines how offshore non-deliverable forward trading in ten emerging market currencies feeds through to onshore spot rates, using transaction-level data cleared through LCH ForexClear from 2014 to 2025. Relevant for central banks and FX desks assessing how capital controls and bank access rules shape currency transmission.

  • The paper uses transaction-level data on NDF trades for 10 emerging market currencies cleared through LCH ForexClear from 2014 to 2025.
  • A $1 billion increase in offshore dollar demand moves the onshore exchange rate by about 10 basis points within minutes.
  • The same $1 billion shock moves the offshore forward rate by about 18 basis points.
  • The offshore-onshore price gap narrowed when Indian banks were allowed to participate in offshore markets in 2020 and widened again when that access was restricted in 2026.
  • The study draws on four episodes of regulatory change affecting banks' offshore NDF access in China, Malaysia and India.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Sustainability ✓ 14 claims 21 Oct 2026

Bank of Italy's Panetta says climate damages topped $200bn in 2025, resilience lagging

A speech by Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta opening the BIS-hosted Green Swan 2026 conference in Manila sets out why climate resilience, not just mitigation, now needs central bank and financial sector attention. Useful for risk and sustainability teams tracking how senior regulators are framing physical climate risk as a near-term financial stability issue rather than a distant threat.

  • Extreme weather events caused more than USD 200 billion in direct damages globally in 2025, Panetta said.
  • That figure is more than double the level of direct damages recorded in the early 2000s.
  • Panetta identified three priorities going forward: understanding climate risks better, sharing and absorbing them more effectively, and investing more decisively in reducing exposure and vulnerability.
  • The first Green Swan Conference was held in 2021, when climate change was already recognised as a major long-term risk.
  • The 2026 conference is jointly organised by the BIS, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Banca d'Italia and the NGFS.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases AI, Technology & Data ✓ 19 claims 21 Oct 2026

BIS official warns AI could amplify herding and cyber risk in finance

A BIS speech examines how artificial intelligence may reshape price formation, herding behaviour and cyber risk in the financial system, with implications for how central banks and regulators monitor and respond. Relevant for risk, compliance and technology teams assessing AI's systemic footprint and supervisory expectations.

  • Zhang identified three macro-financial implications of AI: faster price formation, herding, and heightened cyber risk.
  • A recent BIS analysis cited in the speech points to growing debt, including private credit, and circular financing among firms within the AI ecosystem.
  • The BIS's 2026 Annual Economic Report calls for better supervisory visibility into AI use to identify model-driven correlated exposures and herding.
  • The Financial Stability Institute's recent work points to strengthening existing cyber resilience frameworks as AI changes the threat environment.
  • Project Spectrum, a BIS Innovation Hub collaboration with the Deutsche Bundesbank and European Central Bank, explored using AI to structure daily product-price data for inflation analysis.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Financial Crime ✓ 22 claims 20 Oct 2026

BIS working paper uses AI to measure how firms respond to sanctions and tariffs

BIS Working Paper 1386 presents a new methodology that uses large language models to read corporate earnings calls and classify how firms respond to geoeconomic pressure, including export controls, sanctions and tariffs. For compliance and government affairs teams tracking sanctions exposure and trade policy risk, the findings offer a data-driven map of which sectors and jurisdictions are adapting, and how.

  • BIS Working Paper 1386 was published on 19 October 2026 and runs to 119 pages.
  • The methodology uses large language models to read earnings calls and determine whether a firm states it is acting in response to geoeconomic pressure, including the stated rationale.
  • Export controls prompt targeted firms, especially Chinese firms facing US semiconductor and AI restrictions, to raise domestic R&D spending to build local substitutes.
  • Coalition firms in the US and Europe report lost revenue and asset writeoffs from Russia sanctions, while third-country firms in China and India report filling market gaps with discounted oil and rerouted trade.
  • US tariffs mostly raise costs and compress margins for firms reliant on imported inputs, while supply chains are reported shifting away from China toward the United States, Vietnam and Mexico.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Prudential & Capital ✓ 17 claims 20 Oct 2026

BIS paper estimates Iran conflict could add 1.5-2 points to inflation through 2027

A BIS working paper by Ricardo Reis assesses how the Iran conflict's disruption to oil, gas and fertiliser supplies could move inflation in the euro area, UK and US. It models four transmission channels and offers central banks an early read on whether to tolerate the shock or tighten policy against it.

  • The paper estimates the Iran conflict could raise inflation by about 1.5-2 percentage points in total during 2026 and 2027.
  • A further 0.3-0.4 percentage points could come from higher inflation expectations feeding into spending and wages.
  • Financial market data as of May 2026 show long-term inflation expectations remain broadly stable, indicating the inflation target's credibility has not eroded.
  • The evidence on how fiscal policy responses to the shock will affect inflation is described as unclear.
  • The paper concludes the inflation effect will be significant and may last into 2027 but smaller and shorter-lived than the 2021-24 inflation surge.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Governance & Accountability ✓ 13 claims 20 Oct 2026

BIS Publishes Governors' Panel Remarks on Monetary Policy Amid Fragmentation

This item covers the release of BIS Paper 176, a 20-page record of remarks from a governors' panel on monetary policy in a fragmented global economy, delivered at the 25th BIS Annual Conference. It is useful for tracking what senior central bankers are signalling about fragmentation risks ahead of more substantive working papers still to come.

  • BIS Paper no 176, published 19 October 2026, is a 20-page record of panel remarks from the 25th BIS Annual Conference.
  • The conference took place in Basel, Switzerland on 26 June 2026 under the theme "Central banks and macro-financial stability in a fragmented global economy."
  • The panel on "Monetary policy in a fragmented global economy" featured Governors Fatih Karahan, Tiff Macklem and Ida Wolden Bache, plus Deputy Governor Anna Breman.
  • Three papers from the same conference are released as BIS Working Papers nos 1384, 1385 and 1386, with a fourth, no 1387, to follow at a later date.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Digital Assets ✓ 21 claims 20 Oct 2026

BIS paper finds stablecoins no cure for cross-border payment costs, fintechs win on price

BIS Working Paper 1385 builds comparable all-in cost measures for three cross-border payment rails and tests the claim that stablecoins fix the system's frictions. For anyone shaping a payments strategy or a stablecoin business case, it is a sober data-based check: fintech operators have already compressed costs sharply, while stablecoin transfers still depend on exchanges, thin FX liquidity and fiat off-ramps.

  • BIS Working Paper 1385 was published on 19 October 2026 and carries no binding force, representing the authors' views rather than the BIS.
  • Retail bank wire FX markups range from approximately 2% to 4.7% even for highly liquid currencies, before explicit wire fees are added.
  • For $10,000 transfers from the United States, median fintech costs across developed-market currency groups run around $40 to $60, though some destinations cost considerably more.
  • Stablecoin transfers still depend on crypto exchange, conversion and fiat-withdrawal fees, and liquidity between US dollar stablecoins and non-US currencies is generally very thin.
  • Any favourable stablecoin FX pricing into emerging markets reflects capital-control distortions rather than the underlying blockchain technology.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Sustainability ✓ 16 claims 19 Oct 2026

BIS paper weighs AI's climate benefits against its own energy footprint

A BIS working paper by Leonardo Gambacorta and Salvatore Polizzi examines the two-way relationship between artificial intelligence and climate change. It covers AI's direct environmental footprint, its potential contribution to mitigation and adaptation, rebound effects, and two stylised scenarios for how capabilities might evolve. The authors set out why the AI-climate nexus bears on potential output, inflation and financial stability.

  • BIS Paper 174 was published on 8 October 2026 and runs to 27 pages, authored by Leonardo Gambacorta and Salvatore Polizzi.
  • The paper finds AI can improve energy efficiency and climate forecasting while its development raises electricity demand and, depending on carbon intensity and timing, associated emissions.
  • The authors assess two stylised scenarios: an AI copilot path with gradual build-up and uncertain net effect, and a transformative AGI path with larger and more uncertain benefits and risks.
  • The paper states the AI-climate nexus can influence potential output and inflation dynamics, while the scale and financing of AI and energy investment may have financial stability implications.
  • The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the BIS or its member central banks.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Prudential & Capital ✓ 12 claims 18 Oct 2026

Basel Committee finalises G-SIB window-dressing fix, moves scoring to annual averages by 2030

The Basel Committee has closed off a long-standing tactic in which banks shrink their reported systemic footprint around G-SIB reference dates. Final amendments switch indicator calculation to annual averages, the threshold for who must report rises, and a parallel consultation reopens the question of how European Banking Union cross-border exposures are treated. Anyone running G-SIB reporting should read the implementation dates closely.

  • Banks must calculate all stock G-SIB indicators on an average of values over the reporting year rather than year-end values, implemented by 1 January 2030.
  • The G-SIB reporting and disclosure threshold rises from EUR 200 billion to EUR 350 billion in leverage ratio exposure measure, effective from 2027.
  • The Committee is consulting on whether to incorporate the treatment of cross-border exposures within the European Banking Union into the G-SIB methodology.
  • Comments on the consultation must be submitted by 14 January 2027.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Sustainability ✓ 23 claims 16 Oct 2026

NGFS chair says 2025 extreme-weather losses hit $200bn, double 2000s average

DNB President and NGFS Chair Olaf Sleijpen used a Frankfurt sustainable finance speech to lay out early estimates of this summer's European heat damage and present NGFS case-study findings on 31 extreme weather events from 2021-2025. The speech frames adaptation as a second-best policy and argues scenario analysis shows transition costs are now smaller than unmitigated climate damage.

  • Sleijpen cited an early, unofficial estimate that combined weather effects could cut EU GDP by around 1% this year, approximately €180 billion.
  • Coceral estimated Europe lost almost 9 million tonnes of grain crop this summer, with a financial loss of about 2 billion euros.
  • NGFS case studies of 31 extreme weather events from 2021 to 2025 found GDP losses ranging from 0% to more than 50% and inflation increases of 0 to 17 percentage points.
  • Global extreme weather damages recorded in 2025 exceeded $200 billion, double the average annual amount recorded in the 2000s, according to Sleijpen.
  • Oxford Economics estimated adverse weather could add more than 1 percentage point to food-price inflation next year.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases AI, Technology & Data ✓ 21 claims 15 Oct 2026

BIS paper warns AI growth could stall as automation thins the consumer demand that funds innovation

A BIS working paper models whether transformative AI can sustain high growth once large-scale automation shifts output toward investment and away from consumption. It matters because the author's calibrated model favours a far more muted outcome than recent transformative estimates, with direct implications for the natural rate of interest that central banks and treasury teams must price.

  • Calibrated model identifies the 'demand bottleneck' scenario, where thinning consumer demand stalls AI progress, as empirically highly plausible.
  • Transformative AI scenario reaches 5.5% growth after two decades; demand bottleneck falls below the pre-AI 2% rate as innovation permanently slows.
  • Paper projects more moderate growth than recent studies such as Korinek et al. (2026) and highlights high uncertainty over the natural rate of interest.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Prudential & Capital ✓ 10 claims 15 Oct 2026

Basel Committee grades Australia, Japan, Korea, Switzerland compliant on leverage ratio; Canada, UK one notch below

The Basel Committee published RCAP assessment reports on how six jurisdictions implemented its leverage ratio framework. Four earned the top grade; Canada and the UK fell one notch short. This segment covers who was graded, how, and what the Committee is assessing next, including the newly initiated review of the Basel III risk-weighted asset revisions.

  • Australia, Japan, Korea and Switzerland assessed compliant; Canada and UK largely compliant with the leverage ratio framework.
  • Publication concludes the first round of multi-jurisdictional RCAP assessments of the leverage ratio.
  • Committee began assessing the Basel III risk-weighted asset revisions in H1 2026 and continues to assess leverage ratio implementation.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Digital Assets ✓ 18 claims 15 Oct 2026

BIS paper finds stablecoins and bank deposits are partial substitutes in US data

A BIS working paper tests whether reserve-backed stablecoins compete with bank deposits for US funds. Using weekly data and an identification strategy built on how banks reprice deposits above roughly 3%, the authors measure how stablecoin market capitalisation responds to deposit rate changes. The finding matters for how far the stablecoin sector can grow and how it might touch bank funding and monetary transmission.

  • Higher bank deposit rates are followed by slower stablecoin growth; the relationship is stronger for USDC than USDT.
  • Identification exploits banks repricing deposits more aggressively once the federal funds rate exceeds roughly 3%; a placebo test uses non-stablecoin cryptoassets.
  • The paper studies allocation between assets and does not establish that stablecoin growth reduces aggregate bank deposits or lending.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases Digital Assets ✓ 19 claims 15 Oct 2026

BIS research finds on-chain crypto metrics vary by up to six times depending on method

A BIS working paper dismantles the assumption that public blockchain data yields clean measures of crypto and DeFi activity. For anyone using on-chain metrics to size markets, assess counterparties or inform supervisory thinking, it sets out exactly where the numbers diverge and why the same stablecoin means different things on different chains.

  • Bitcoin transaction values vary by up to a factor of six depending on the measurement approach used.
  • Authors classified 13 million active smart contracts, including about 1.4 million tokens, with trading concentrated around stablecoins.
  • The same stablecoin behaves differently across chains: tied to smart contracts on Ethereum, held outside them on Tron.
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BIS BIS Press Releases Source document ↗
Global BIS Press Releases AI, Technology & Data ✓ 15 claims 15 Oct 2026

BIS flags circular investment loops among AI firms as source of macro risk and opacity

A BIS Bulletin maps how AI firms invest in one another, and how often those investments overlap with commercial supply relationships between the same parties. For anyone tracking financial-stability signals in the AI build-out, it quantifies the concentration and names the risks central banks are starting to watch.

  • 55.2% of incoming investment in AI firms (2021-2025) came from other AI firms; 28.7% of AI firms' deals by value targeted another AI firm.
  • Of AI-to-AI deals, 16.1% by count and 46.4% by value also involved supply-chain relationships between investor and target.
  • BIS staff frame these loops as economically rational but carrying macroeconomic risk and reduced transparency.
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