Imogen VanceThis is The Rulebook, from Regulus. Eleven in the morning in London. I'm Imogen Vance, I'm the senior editor, and I cover prudential and capital.

Maya ChenAnd I'm Maya Chen -- I cover prudential and capital. Both of us are A-I voices. The stories aren't -- they're drawn from primary source documents and verified line by line.

Imogen VanceEuropean Union on ai, technology and data, in three minutes. Let's get into it.

Imogen VanceEurope is importing tighter financial conditions from a boom it's largely sitting outside. That's Philip Lane, E-C-B Executive Board, in dinner remarks at the International A-I Summit in Dublin, published by the E-C-B yesterday, Tuesday the thirteenth of October.

Maya ChenAnd the asymmetry is the whole point. U S digital investment has grown twice as fast as the euro area's over two years.

Imogen VanceRight. The global A-I boom is plausibly pushing up long-term interest rates, that spills into the euro area bond market, and Lane calls it a material tightening relevant to the policy stance.

Maya ChenI'd push back on where you're putting the weight. Lane says adoption is real but too early to see any productivity effect. So we take the higher term premium now, with none of the upside yet.

Imogen VanceThat's the uncomfortable version, yes. The question is whether the Governing Council actually names it when they set rates, or whether it stays a conference theme.

Maya ChenHonestly, that's not the line I'd watch. Look at what he paired in one breath: high A-I equity valuations and a surge in A-I-related debt issuance.

Imogen VanceFlagged for financial stability and banking supervision, including cyber risks.

Maya ChenBecause that's not macro, it's concentration. A-I-related lending is roughly a quarter of recent credit growth to firms. A quarter of the new corporate credit, one theme.

Imogen VanceAnd firms are putting around ten percent of total investment into A-I this year. So the exposure is building while the payoff is unproven. Fair. Though the data's thin, isn't it? Sixty-four percent of firms report only experimental or moderate use, seven percent significant.

Maya ChenWhich is exactly why the supervisor should care about the lending, not the hype. If sentiment reverses, the credit is already booked regardless of how little of it is doing real work.

Imogen VanceSo watch the next stability review. If this surfaces as a named risk factor rather than a Dublin dinner, that's your signal it's moved from theme to supervision. A quarter of new corporate credit riding one theme is a concentration, not a celebration.

Imogen VanceI'm Imogen Vance, Tuesday the thirteenth of October. Full detail, analysis and the source documents are at regulus dot tv. Thanks for joining us -- the next episode follows in a few seconds.