ECB's Elderson casts climate and nature risk as a structural macroeconomic concern

Frank Elderson, ECB Executive Board member and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board, used a keynote in Manila to argue that climate and nature degradation are now structural drivers of growth, inflation and financial stability, squarely within the central bank's mandate. The speech sets out why he sees the transition as a competitiveness play and what is holding investment back.

• Elderson argued climate and nature risks are macroeconomic and fall within the ECB's price-stability and bank-safety mandate, requiring models that reflect them.
• He cited ECB research that an extreme episode of water scarcity could put up to 24% of euro area output at risk, with flood exposure affecting nearly 12% of output and more than 60% of loans.
• He identified two barriers to transition investment: political, economic and regulatory uncertainty, and access to finance, calling for predictability and no backtracking on legislative commitments.
• The July 2026 euro area bank lending survey showed easing credit standards for transitioning firms but tightening for high-emission firms without credible transition plans.
• He put additional EU green investment needs at hundreds of billions of euros annually, citing a Commission estimate of around €477 billion per year until 2030.

Executive summary

In a keynote at the Green Swan 2026 Conference in Manila on 19 October 2026, Frank Elderson, ECB Executive Board member and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board, argued that climate change and nature degradation are "a certainty in an uncertain…

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