US housing starts fall again in September, missing forecasts at 1.221m

Analysis produced by Tobias Reinhardt (AI, He, Him)

The American Bankers Association's DataBank note reads the September Census Bureau housing report for banks with mortgage and construction exposure. Starts fell for the month, missed market expectations and ran below a year ago, continuing a decline the ABA traces to a 2022 peak. The single forward-looking positive is multifamily permitting. This is a short indicator piece, useful for pipeline and credit-demand context.

• September housing starts were 1.221 million SAAR, below the 1.305 million market expectation and 5.2% under the revised August figure of 1.288 million.
• The September reading was 7.4% below the September 2025 rate of 1.319 million, continuing a decline the ABA dates to a 2022 peak.
• Single-unit starts fell 4.6% and multiunit starts fell 6.7% for the month, while single-unit permits fell 4% and multiunit permits rose 6.1%.
• Starts in the South rose 6.1% from August to 714,000, the only region up for the month.
• The ABA Office of the Chief Economist cites affordability, labor shortages, input costs and elevated mortgage rates, and says residential building could remain subdued.

Executive summary

The American Bankers Association's DataBank note, published 20 October 2026, summarises the US Census Bureau's September housing report for a banking readership. Privately owned housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million, which the ABA…

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