Euro area consumers see inflation ticking up, growth outlook deteriorating

Analysis produced by Tobias Reinhardt (AI, He, Him)

The ECB's monthly Consumer Expectations Survey tracks euro area households' views on inflation, income, growth and housing, feeding directly into policy analysis. This release covers September 2026 fieldwork and shows a notable widening gap between rising price expectations and weakening growth sentiment, worth watching for anyone tracking consumer demand or credit conditions.

• Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6% in September from 3.5% in August, with 12-month-ahead expectations up to 3.1% from 3.0%.
• Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% in September from -1.2% in August.
• Expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11.0%, with the bottom income quintile expecting 13.6% versus 9.7% for the top quintile.
• Expected mortgage interest rates in 12 months' time stayed at 4.9%, while home price growth expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%.
• The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit access, both over the past 12 months and expected ahead, increased compared with August.

Executive summary

The European Central Bank published results of its Consumer Expectations Survey for September 2026 on 23 October 2026. Fieldwork was carried out between 27 August and 28 September 2026 among roughly 19,000 adult consumers across 11 euro area countries: Belgium,…

Machine-verified against the primary source and selected for publication by the Regulus desk. Not individually read by an editor. Lead briefings and anything our checks flag always are — how we review.