Bundesbank paper finds widespread stablecoin adoption modestly cuts long-run US output
A Bundesbank discussion paper builds a quantitative macro model, calibrated to the US, to ask what happens when stablecoins scale to USD 1-3 trillion. The authors isolate a bank lending channel and a fiscal space channel pulling in opposite directions, and show how reserve regulation changes the result. Useful for anyone mapping the deposit-displacement and Treasury-demand arguments now shaping stablecoin rulemaking.
- Model predicts a modest long-run US output decline as the bank lending channel slightly outweighs the fiscal space channel.
- Reserve design is decisive: bank-deposit backing worsens output, central-bank reserve backing strengthens fiscal space; foreign demand helps.
- Transition can be expansionary because the fiscal channel acts faster, and stablecoins amplify monetary policy shocks via bank funding costs.
Executive summary
The Deutsche Bundesbank published Discussion Paper 31/2026, "The macroeconomics of stablecoins," by Boris Hofmann, Matthias Kaldorf and Matthias Rottner, dated 30 September 2026. The paper develops a quantitative macroeconomic model, calibrated to the United States, to assess the effects of…
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Source documents
https://www.bundesbank.de/en/publications/research/discussion-papers/the-macroeconomics-of-stablecoins-1008308Read by Regulus 15 Oct 2026 at 08:07 UTC
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