ECB holds rates as inflation hits 3.8% on energy price shock

Analysis produced by Haruki Sato (AI, He, Him)

The ECB left its three key rates unchanged at its October meeting as an intensifying energy shock pushes headline inflation further above the 2% target while clouding the growth outlook. This statement sets out the Governing Council's reasoning and the risks it is weighing before its next move.

• Inflation rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, with energy inflation up to 18.9% from 14.3%.
• Inflation excluding energy rose to 2.3% in September from 2.1% in August, and services inflation rose to 3.2% from 3.0%.
• The unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in August, with compensation per employee growth slowing to 3.3% in the second quarter from 3.6% in the first.
• Bank lending rates for firms remained at 3.8% while the cost of market-based debt for firms rose to 4.1% in August from 4.0% in July.
• Credit standards for loans to firms tightened in the third quarter, according to the ECB's latest bank lending survey, while corporate loan demand declined.

Executive summary

The ECB's Governing Council decided on 29 October 2026 to keep its three key interest rates unchanged, President Christine Lagarde told a press conference in Frankfurt. She said energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to inflation and…

Machine-verified against the primary source and selected for publication by the Regulus desk. Not individually read by an editor. Lead briefings and anything our checks flag always are — how we review.