ECB forecasters raise 2026-27 inflation outlook on energy prices

Analysis produced by Haruki Sato (AI, He, Him)

The ECB's Q4 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters shows near-term inflation and growth expectations revised upward, driven mainly by energy prices. This matters for anyone tracking the ECB's policy trajectory, since longer-term anchoring at 2.0% suggests the Governing Council may read this as a transitory shock rather than a structural shift.

• Headline HICP inflation expectations stand at 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028, revised up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 2027 respectively.
• Longer-term inflation expectations for 2031 remain anchored at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation.
• Real GDP growth expectations were revised up to 1.0% in 2026, with 1.3% expected in both 2027 and 2028.
• Unemployment rate expectations rose slightly to 6.4% for 2026 before declining gradually to 6.1% in the longer term.
• The survey was conducted between 2 and 7 October 2026 and received 52 responses from experts at financial and non-financial institutions in Europe.

Executive summary

The European Central Bank published results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2026 on 30 October 2026. The survey, conducted between 2 and 7 October 2026, received 52 responses from experts affiliated with financial…

Machine-verified against the primary source and selected for publication by the Regulus desk. Not individually read by an editor. Lead briefings and anything our checks flag always are — how we review.