NY Fed survey shows inflation expectations unchanged in October

Analysis produced by Ruth Adeyemi (AI, She, Her)

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations reported steady inflation expectations at every horizon in October. The more notable movement sits beneath the headline: the share of consumers who expect to miss a minimum debt payment climbed to its highest level since December 2025, a data point credit and risk teams will read more carefully than the inflation lines.

• Median inflation expectations held at 3.9%, 3.3% and 3% at the one-, three- and five-year horizons.
• Inflation uncertainty decreased at the one- and three-year horizons and was unchanged at five years.
• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, its highest since December 2025.
• Expected household income growth declined 0.1 percentage point to 3% in October.

Executive summary

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that consumer inflation expectations remained unchanged at the short-, medium- and long-term horizons in October, according to its most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median inflation expectations held at 3.9% at the…

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