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Cards Wire 7 segments
0:15
ECB European Central Bank Source document ↗
European Union European Central Bank Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 19 claims 30 Oct 2026

ECB forecasters raise 2026-27 inflation outlook on energy prices

The ECB's Q4 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters shows near-term inflation and growth expectations revised upward, driven mainly by energy prices. This matters for anyone tracking the ECB's policy trajectory, since longer-term anchoring at 2.0% suggests the Governing Council may read this as a transitory shock rather than a structural shift.

  • Headline HICP inflation expectations stand at 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028, revised up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 2027 respectively.
  • Longer-term inflation expectations for 2031 remain anchored at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation.
  • Real GDP growth expectations were revised up to 1.0% in 2026, with 1.3% expected in both 2027 and 2028.
  • Unemployment rate expectations rose slightly to 6.4% for 2026 before declining gradually to 6.1% in the longer term.
  • The survey was conducted between 2 and 7 October 2026 and received 52 responses from experts at financial and non-financial institutions in Europe.
Source document
0:15
ECB European Central Bank Source document ↗
European Union European Central Bank Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 26 claims 29 Oct 2026

ECB confirms Europe's move to T+1 settlement on 11 October 2027

ECB board member Piero Cipollone used a keynote to an EU T+1 Industry Committee event to pin down the date, sequencing and supporting infrastructure for Europe's shift from T+2 to T+1 securities settlement, and to frame it within the Eurosystem's broader tokenisation work. For treasury, operations and post-trade teams, this is the clearest public statement yet of what the Eurosystem will change and when.

  • Europe will move to T+1 securities settlement on 11 October 2027, halving the trade-to-settlement window to one day.
  • T2S changes, including to the night-time settlement process, are planned for June 2027 ahead of the October migration.
  • Pontes, live since 21 September, will extend operating hours by mid-2027 and move to 24/7/365 availability in 2028, with immediate settlement finality targeted as early as next year.
  • The Eurosystem has accepted DLT-based marketable assets as eligible collateral since 30 March and is assessing extending eligibility to assets outside currently eligible settlement systems.
  • Appia aims to deliver a blueprint for an integrated European tokenised finance ecosystem by 2028, with a consultation report published on 28 October.
Source document
3:07
ECB European Central Bank Source document ↗
European Union European Central Bank Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 27 claims 29 Oct 2026

ECB holds rates as inflation hits 3.8% on energy price shock

The ECB left its three key rates unchanged at its October meeting as an intensifying energy shock pushes headline inflation further above the 2% target while clouding the growth outlook. This statement sets out the Governing Council's reasoning and the risks it is weighing before its next move.

  • Inflation rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, with energy inflation up to 18.9% from 14.3%.
  • Inflation excluding energy rose to 2.3% in September from 2.1% in August, and services inflation rose to 3.2% from 3.0%.
  • The unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in August, with compensation per employee growth slowing to 3.3% in the second quarter from 3.6% in the first.
  • Bank lending rates for firms remained at 3.8% while the cost of market-based debt for firms rose to 4.1% in August from 4.0% in July.
  • Credit standards for loans to firms tightened in the third quarter, according to the ECB's latest bank lending survey, while corporate loan demand declined.
Source document
play
ECB European Central Bank Source document ↗
European Union European Central Bank Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 16 claims 29 Oct 2026

ECB holds deposit rate at 2.50% as energy shock clouds inflation outlook

The ECB's Governing Council met on 29 October 2026 and left its three key interest rates unchanged. This briefing covers the stated rationale, the balance of risks the Council identified, and what its data-dependent stance signals for the coming meetings. Relevant for treasury, markets and governance teams tracking euro area financing conditions.

  • The deposit facility, main refinancing operations and marginal lending facility rates remain unchanged at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively.
  • The Governing Council said the energy shock's increased magnitude and duration, and its indirect and second-round effects, are likely to drive up inflation and lower growth.
  • Financing conditions have tightened since the Governing Council's last meeting, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth.
  • The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests principal payments from maturing securities.
  • The Governing Council confirmed it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path and will proceed meeting by meeting.
Source document
3:19
ECB European Central Bank Source document ↗
European Union European Central Bank Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 20 claims 26 Oct 2026

Euro area firms report wider bank loan financing gap in Q3 2026 SAFE

The ECB's quarterly SAFE survey tracks how euro area firms, mostly SMEs, experience bank lending conditions. This round shows rates and collateral terms tightening further while loan availability fell faster than financing needs. A large sample composition change means the usual price and inflation expectation readings need caution this quarter.

  • A net 46% of firms reported higher bank loan interest rates in Q3 2026, up from 42% in Q2, with large firms reporting increases more often (net 55%) than SMEs (net 38%).
  • Bank loan availability declined by a net 5% in Q3 2026, compared with a net 1% decline in Q2, while financing needs fell by only a net 2%.
  • The resulting bank loan financing gap indicator stood at a net 2%, versus a net 3% in the previous quarter, meaning availability contracted faster than demand.
  • Collateral requirements tightened to a net 14%, up from 10% in the prior round, even as other financing cost increases (fees, charges, commissions) eased to a net 27% from 31%.
  • The survey sample changed substantially this round, with first-time respondents forming the majority of 12,822 enterprises surveyed, complicating interpretation of selling price and inflation expectation data.
Source document
0:15
ECB European Central Bank Source document ↗
European Union European Central Bank Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 25 claims 23 Oct 2026

Euro area consumers see inflation ticking up, growth outlook deteriorating

The ECB's monthly Consumer Expectations Survey tracks euro area households' views on inflation, income, growth and housing, feeding directly into policy analysis. This release covers September 2026 fieldwork and shows a notable widening gap between rising price expectations and weakening growth sentiment, worth watching for anyone tracking consumer demand or credit conditions.

  • Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6% in September from 3.5% in August, with 12-month-ahead expectations up to 3.1% from 3.0%.
  • Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% in September from -1.2% in August.
  • Expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11.0%, with the bottom income quintile expecting 13.6% versus 9.7% for the top quintile.
  • Expected mortgage interest rates in 12 months' time stayed at 4.9%, while home price growth expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%.
  • The net percentage of households reporting tighter credit access, both over the past 12 months and expected ahead, increased compared with August.
Source document
0:15
ECB European Central Bank Source document ↗
European Union European Central Bank Markets & Infrastructure ✓ 24 claims 18 Oct 2026

ECB securities financing survey records fourth straight quarter of easing credit terms

The ECB's quarterly SESFOD survey covers how 26 large banks set credit terms in euro-denominated securities financing and OTC derivatives markets. This round shows a fourth consecutive quarter of slight easing, concentrated in pricing, alongside rising valuation disputes in parts of the derivatives market. It is a useful read on how dealers are pricing counterparty risk heading into a period of geopolitical uncertainty.

  • Overall credit terms and conditions eased slightly for all counterparty types for a fourth consecutive quarter, mainly through price terms.
  • Non-price terms eased slightly for banks and dealers but tightened slightly for hedge funds, whose use of leverage increased slightly.
  • Demand for securities financing rose across most collateral types, led by equities at a net 27% of respondents, while haircuts fell for most bond collateral and asset-backed securities.
  • Initial margin requirements decreased slightly for FX, interest rate, equity and several credit derivative types, while valuation disputes increased for several derivative types, particularly credit derivatives.
  • Results are based on responses from 26 large banks, comprising 14 euro area banks and 12 with head offices outside the euro area.
Source document